In Season/ Season XVIII
Week 1 recap · Season XVIII

By a Fraction

The first week of Season XVIII produced the second-closest game in league history, a 189-point opening from the team ranked eleventh, and a 44-point win that its own manager should be embarrassed about.

The week in five lines

Second-closest game ever played

Schmidt arrives and wins the second-closest game in league history

There have been 1,513 games in this league. Exactly one was closer than this one.

Schmidt's first game as a member of the League of Champions was decided by 0.14 — behind only Hart over Zoz by 0.06 in week ten of 2023, and ahead of everything else in eighteen years. First meeting between these two franchises. It will be hard to top as an introduction.

The game was lost in the two slots nobody thinks about. Gosling got 1.00 from Harrison Mevis and 1.00 from the Chargers defense. Schmidt got 7.00 from Jason Myers and 3.00 from the Giants — a defense that watched New York convert nine of ten third downs, a rate only one NFL team has bettered in a game this century, and paid him three points for the privilege. That is the whole margin and then some: a single made field goal anywhere in that lineup flips the season's opening weekend.

The margin
0.14
points, the margin — #2 of 1,505 decided games
1
Hart def. Zoz
2023 W10
0.06
2
Schmidt def. Gosling
2026 W1
0.14
3
Caleb & Porter def. Javier
2024 W1
0.30
4
John Connolly def. Zoz
2020 W8
0.32
5
Gosling def. Caleb & Porter
2023 W12
0.42
  • Allen 38.66 — 334 passing, two through the air, two on the ground — outscored Hurts 30.72 by eight.
  • Makai Lemon finished his debut on minus five receiving yards, the fewest ever by a first-round receiver in a week one. Schmidt started him, got 2.50, and won by 0.14.
  • Olave 28.20 on 10 of 13 for 182. Nobody on either roster saw more football.
  • Schmidt left Mahomes and 25.66 on the bench and did not need a point of it. Gosling's 126.72 was the third-lowest score of the week.
Won by 44, should be furious

Hart's best team never took the field

Hart won this by 43.98 and managed the worst lineup week in the league by a distance. His optimal eleven scored 197.10. He started 135.84 of it. That is 68.9% efficiency — every other manager in the league cleared 86%.

Jalen Coker caught eight of nine for 138 and two scores, 33.80, more than anybody on Hart's roster, and did it from the bench. That is not a fluke he can be forgiven for missing: across their last eight games together Coker has gone 36-516-6 to Tetairoa McMillan's 24-387-2, 15.5 points a game against 9.3. Brock Purdy put up 27.10 sitting beside him while Bo Nix started and fumbled three times for 4.44.

It was the twenty-seventh counting meeting between these two, one of the three longest-running pairings in the league. Geenen still leads it 14-13.

The bench
StartedShould have
QB
B. Nix4.44
→
B. Purdy27.10
+22.66
WR
L. McConkey19.20
→
J. Coker33.80
+14.60
Started 135.84Best available 197.10Efficiency 68.9%
  • Bijan Robinson took 65.8% of Atlanta's scrimmage yards, the highest share in the NFL. He led the league last season at 39.3%. 29.30 for Hart.
  • Trey McBride's 24.50 was his 38th career game with five catches — tied with Antonio Gates and Kellen Winslow Sr. for the second-most by a tight end in his first five seasons.
  • Terry McLaurin managed a career-low 8.4% air-yard share and 0.41 yards per route run. Hart started him for 3.40.
  • Geenen went 0-11 on the all-play. Jaylen Waddle's 1.20 is a pace of 17 catches for 34 yards across a season.
The number one ranked team lost by 51

Yim goes to 176 and the Breakers never got close

Yim put up 176.46, the 124th-best score of the 3,026 in league history, and not one of her starters reached 25. Nobody had a monster; it was spread across the whole lineup — eight of eleven in double figures, a defense that scored a touchdown, and a tight end who caught two of them.

Ghost had the roster everyone liked. Post-draft rankings had him first. He scored 124.86, which on most weeks is fine, and went 1-10 on the all-play, which means it wasn't. Jahmyr Gibbs did his part with 32.60 and half of Detroit's scrimmage yards. Justin Herbert managed 15.26 and Jordan Addison caught nothing on two targets.

Yim leads the series 8-4.

The spread
Yimstarters, high to lowGhost
J. Taylor24.10
32.60J. Gibbs
C. Hubbard23.70
19.30B. Irving
D. Goedert23.70
15.50K. Williams
J. Daniels21.66
15.26J. Herbert
N. Collins21.20
11.00DET
PIT20.00
10.30T. Warren
E. Egbuka11.30
9.50T. McMillan
C. Schwesinger10.00
4.30M. Harrison
D. Metcalf8.00
4.00W. Lutz
J. Bates7.00
3.10T. Hunter
G. Pickens5.80
0.00J. Addison
  • Marvin Harrison Jr ran 87% of Arizona's routes for an 8.3% target share. He was out-targeted by McBride, Michael Wilson, Kendrick Bourne and a rookie running back. 4.30 for Ghost.
  • Pittsburgh's defense: 2 INT, 4 sacks, 2 forced fumbles, a touchdown, 20.00.
  • Jonathan Taylor took 45.1% of Indianapolis's scrimmage yards; Chuba Hubbard 71% of Carolina's carries. 47.80 between them for Yim.
  • Yim's bench held Monangai's 20.40 and Deebo's 18.00. She had 24.60 to spare.
Fifty-four points of quarterback, unused

Javier's quarterback room is a rounding error

Javier started Lamar Jackson for 25.96 and left Jaxson Dart's 31.60 and Jordan Love's 22.48 on the bench. Dart was the most efficient quarterback in the NFL last week at +0.73 expected points added per play — first of everybody with fifteen dropbacks — and he watched the whole thing from Javier's bench, in a week where the man across from him got 4.10 from Matthew Stafford.

That was the game. Drew's skill players mostly held up — St. Brown 28.70 on ten catches and a 35.9% target share, Evans and Chase Brown both useful — and it did not matter, because the quarterback slot was a 22-point hole before anyone else touched the ball.

Jeanty's 32.70 on 23 carries and two scores was the highest individual total on either side. Javier's 93.9% lineup efficiency was second-best in the league.

The series
2022 W12
121.30163.10
2023 W1
98.54136.36
2023 W12
157.22117.28
2024 W2
110.26102.70
2024 W13
146.94120.58
2025 W3
134.62138.32
2025 W14
131.44126.86
2026 W1
155.56130.00
Last 8 of 11 shown
  • Dalton Kincaid went 5 for 5 and 130 yards — the most by a Buffalo tight end since 1967, per ESPN Research — on a 75% snap rate. His career high was 54%.
  • Ashton Jeanty took 50.7% of Las Vegas's scrimmage yards and is now tied for the most games in NFL history with 100 rushing yards and two receiving touchdowns.
  • Rashee Rice saw two targets for a 7% share at an average depth of 2.5 yards. Drew started him for 9.90.
  • Javier's kicker missed an extra point and finished with 1.00 — and it still was not close. Drew leads the all-time series 6-5.
The champion's champion starts at 180

Four Orvieto starters reached 26

Back-to-back winner of XV and XVI, and he opened Season XVIII by putting four players at 26 or better before the kicker and the defense added 23 between them.

Derrick Henry went 24 for 144 and three touchdowns — his nineteenth career game of 100 rushing yards at thirty or older, a figure only Walter Payton and Emmitt Smith have ever bettered, and he does not turn thirty-three until January. Trevor Lawrence threw four and finished second in the league in efficiency. Zay Flowers took 60% of Baltimore's targets while he was on the field, the highest share of any receiver in football. Isaiah Likely caught all eight of his and ran 91.6% of his routes from a receiver's spot.

Zoz's 138.00 would have beaten seven other teams. It went 7-4 on the all-play. Wrong week.

The onslaught
35.30
D. Henry
24 CAR, 144 YD, 3 TD, 1/1 REC, 19 YD
34.10
T. Lawrence
18/23 CMP, 245 YD, 4 TD, 2 CAR, 3 YD
26.80
I. Likely
8/8 REC, 78 YD, 2 TD, 1 FUM
26.00
Z. Flowers
5/6 REC, 150 YD, 1 TD
  • Montgomery 28.90 with three total touchdowns was Zoz's best and it wasn't close.
  • Colston Loveland played 89% of Chicago's tight end snaps for a 6.9% target share: two targets, no catches, 0.00 from the slot.
  • The Rams had seven snaps inside the ten. Davante Adams was on the field for one of them, and gave Orvieto 5.60.
  • Goff put up 19.44 on Orvieto's bench. He still won by 43.
Ranked eleventh, scored first

Dinsky's 189.36 was the 49th-best score in league history

Out of 3,026 individual scores across eighteen seasons, this one sits 49th. Top 1.6%. It came from the roster the league's own draft ballot graded last, and the post-draft rankings put eleventh.

Caleb Williams was the highest-scoring player in the league: 269 passing, two through the air, ten carries for 65 and two more on the ground, 41.26. He was third in the NFL in efficiency and he owns the four fastest quarterback runs of the last two seasons outright, the quickest at 21.01 miles an hour. Chicago's 59 points were the second-most in a season opener in NFL history and their six rushing touchdowns tied the all-time record for one.

He did all of it with Kyle Pitts at 0.00 and Cameron Dicker at 2.00. Two starting slots produced two points and he still put up 189.

The upset
41.26
C. Williams
21/29 CMP, 269 YD, 2 TD, 10 CAR, 65 YD, 2 TD
34.10
K. Walker
23 CAR, 173 YD, 1 TD, 3/5 REC, 18 YD, 1 TD
32.70
C. Watson
6/8 REC, 147 YD, 2 TD
31.20
J. Jefferson
8/9 REC, 92 YD, 2 TD, 1 2-PT CONV
  • Kenneth Walker's 34.10 was the most rushing yards by a Kansas City back since Jamaal Charles in 2012, and he forced sixteen missed tackles — the second-most by a back in any game since 2021.
  • Justin Jefferson's 31.20 took him to 8,572 receiving yards in 95 games, the third-fastest anyone has reached 8,500 in NFL history.
  • De'Von Achane played 85.5% of Miami's snaps and ran 81.1% of their routes, and gave Dave C 10.60 on 3.3 yards a carry. Against the Raiders.
  • Swift was PFF's highest-graded rusher in the league and scored 32.40. Shough threw for 410 on Dave C's bench.
After week 1

Standings

#
Club
Rec
PF
Form
1
3-0
442.60
WWW
2
2-1
465.02
WWL
3
2-1
434.36
WLW
4
2-1
413.20
WWL
5
2-1
412.64
LWW
6
2-1
389.02
LWW
7
1-2
428.40
LLW
8
1-2
415.38
LWL
9
1-2
410.30
WLL
10
1-2
401.24
WLL
11
1-2
385.48
LLW
12
0-3
358.60
LLL