In Season/ Season XVIII
Week 3 preview · Season XVIII

The Oldest Fixture, Dead Level

Geenen and Yim have played each other thirty times since 2009, more than any two teams in the league, and after eighteen years the series is 14-14-2. They are also the only pairing ever to have tied twice. Everything else this week is a team trying to unlearn a fortnight.

Before a ball is thrown

Thirty meetings, fourteen apiece

Eighteen years have not separated Geenen and Yim

They first played in week two of 2009 and they have played twenty-nine times since, more than any other two teams in this league. Geenen has won fourteen. Yim has won fourteen. Twice — in 2013 and again in 2016 — they finished level, which no other pairing in eighteen years has managed once, let alone twice.

It arrives with the two of them going in opposite directions. Yim is scoring 148.85 a week, fourth-best in the league, and is 1-1 because she ran into Hart's best-managed week of the season. Geenen is scoring 114.72, worst in the league, and is 1-1 because he finally got four starters over twenty in the same afternoon.

Neither man has touched his lineup. Geenen has the eleven that went from 91.86 to 137.58 without a single change, and Yim has made the one swap that cost her last week: Bryce Young in for Jayden Daniels, seven days after Young scored 30.08 from the bench and Daniels 15.74 from the slot.

The series
15-14-2Geenen in 31 meetings
2023 W3
147.06205.66
2023 W14
165.12146.52
2024 W2
145.76162.08
2024 W13
133.52178.04
2025 W3
128.96132.98
2025 W14
145.4681.56
2025 W15
165.20129.62
2026 W3
159.58103.54
Last 8 of 31 shown
  • The series has produced a 65.90 game (2022) and two 0.00 games. Nothing about it is predictable.
  • Geenen has won the last two after losing three in a row before them.
  • Dallas Goedert returned 1.40 at tight end last week and starts again. It was the worst figure in either lineup in that game.
  • Geenen is favoured 55-45 on 129.95 to 123.57 — the lowest-projected game on the board, and the league's worst scorer favoured over its fourth-best.
No history whatsoever

The best two weeks in the league meet for the first time

Schmidt has been in the League of Champions for a fortnight and is 2-0, having won by 0.14 and then by 35.62. Drew is 1-1 and is scoring 153.39 a week, third-best in the league. They have never played.

Schmidt arrives having got 88.32 from two roster slots — Josh Allen's 45.82 and Jaxon Smith-Njigba's 42.50, the two biggest starts of Season XVIII — and having left Patrick Mahomes on his bench for the second week running. Mahomes has scored 60.64 there across two Schmidt wins. Nothing in the lineup has moved since.

Drew has not changed a starter in three weeks, which is either conviction or indifference and has so far looked like conviction. He left his eleven alone after a week-one loss and it returned 176.78, the highest figure of week two. Matthew Stafford went 4.10 to 34.98 in the space of seven days without anybody doing anything about it.

First meeting
0
previous meetings
Schmidt joined for Season XVIII. Every fixture is one he has never played: this is the third of eleven.
  • Drew's 176.78 was the 121st-best score of the 3,042 in league history.
  • Drew is the only manager in the league yet to change a single starting slot.
  • Jake Ferguson scored 20.30 on Drew's bench last week, more than eight of his eleven starters, and is still on it.
  • Schmidt is a 63% favourite, the biggest on the board, against the team that put up the week's highest score.
One manager learned, one did not

Orvieto is starting Trevor Lawrence again

Jared Goff threw for 327 and four touchdowns on Orvieto's bench in week two. Trevor Lawrence started, threw none, and returned 6.16. The 29.62 between them is the biggest benching anybody has managed this season, and Orvieto won by 22.14 anyway — which appears to be the lesson he took, because Lawrence is in again and Goff is out again.

He has also benched Stefon Diggs, who scored 21.70, for Zay Flowers, who scored 0.00. Orvieto is 2-0 with the most points in the league and the worst lineup management in it: 76.6% last week, 60.52 left on his bench across two weeks.

Dave C has done the opposite. Tyler Shough threw 23.38 from his bench while Drake Maye started for 8.02, and this week Shough starts and Maye sits. Josh Downs comes in for Alec Pierce on the same reasoning. He is 1-1 and has left 52.04 on his bench in two weeks, more than anybody except Hart and Orvieto.

What changed
Orvieto1 change
QB
J. Goff
23.36
→
T. Lawrence
Dave C1 change
DEF
CAR
4.00
→
Denver Broncos
  • Orvieto leads the series 10-6 since 2018 and has taken two of the last three.
  • Their closest meeting was 6.18 in week three of last year — this same week, this same fixture.
  • Davante Adams has gone 5.60 then 40.50 in Orvieto's receiver slots. Nobody in the league has swung further in two weeks.
  • 282.54 combined is the biggest projection of the week. Orvieto is favoured 57-43.
0-2 against 2-0, and neither is what it looks like

Ghost has the points and none of the wins

Ghost is 0-2 and 2-20 on the all-play, which only two teams in eighteen years have bettered for awfulness. He has also averaged 118.17 a week, which is bad but not 2-20 bad, and he has been beaten by a 176.46 and a 137.58 in consecutive weeks.

He has made one change and it is the obvious one: Marvin Harrison Jr, who has produced 4.30 from a starting receiver slot across two weeks, comes out for Xavier Worthy, who scored 13.50 on the bench last week. Detroit's defense stays in, seven days after allowing 41 points and 446 yards for minus 1.00.

Hart is 2-0 having scored 268.02, the 22nd-lowest 2-0 start of the 51 on record. He has not touched his lineup, which is a new experience for him: he left 61.26 on his bench in week one and 7.80 in week two, going from the worst-managed team in the league to the second-best in seven days.

The lineups
Ghostlast weekHart
QB
J. HerbertLAC14.74
B. PurdySF39.28
RB
J. GibbsDET41.40
B. RobinsonATL35.30
RB
K. WilliamsLAR21.80
B. HallNYJ8.50
WR
T. McMillanCAR3.70
L. McConkeyLAC10.60
WR
X. WorthyKC5.00
T. McLaurinWAS19.70
WR
J. AddisonMIN20.00
J. CokerCAR3.80
TE
T. WarrenIND14.70
T. McBrideARI16.50
WRT
B. IrvingTB7.80
B. CorumLAR3.50
IDP
J. TrotterTB0.00
F. OluokunJAX6.00
K
W. LutzDEN1.00
T. SmackGB1.00
DEF
DET8.00
PHI1.00
Figures are week one. scored on the bench.
  • Hart leads the series 6-4 since 2021, including a 68.12 win in 2024 and a 2.22 loss last year.
  • Ghost has gone 1-10 on the all-play in both weeks. Caleb & Porter ran nine such weeks together in 2024, which is the record nobody wants.
  • Brock Purdy scored 32.48 in his first start for Hart after 27.10 on the bench in his first week. He starts again.
  • Hart's 148.35 is the largest projection in the league. Ghost at 40% is the second-longest price on the board, behind Drew.
1.56 points a week between them

The closest two teams on the board, and one of them is 0-2

Gosling is scoring 140.84 a week and Javier 139.28. Nothing else on this board is inside ten. Gosling is 0-2 and Javier is 1-1, and the difference between them is that Javier's 155.56 landed in week one against the only team he could beat that day, while Gosling's 154.96 landed in week two against the only team he could not.

That 154.96 was a perfect lineup — the best available eleven, to the cent, the only one anybody has managed this season — and it lost by 21.82. Two weeks in, Gosling's 281.68 is the third-highest-scoring 0-2 start in eighteen years. He has not changed a thing, and has not yet named a defense.

Javier has been going the other way. He started DJ Moore for minus 0.10 last week — one carry for minus a yard and not a single target in twenty-three snaps — and has dropped him without yet naming a replacement. Tampa Bay's 2.00 comes out for the Rams, who scored 12.00 on his bench.

The record
5-6Gosling in 11 meetings
2022 W14
174.38127.96
2023 W3
161.96159.18
2023 W14
93.56118.34
2024 W3
129.48176.68
2024 W14
134.66205.70
2025 W1
124.18126.26
2025 W12
201.46137.02
2026 W3
146.72131.74
Last 8 of 11 shown
  • Javier leads the series 6-4 since 2021, and has won two of the last three.
  • The last meeting was Gosling 201.46 to 137.02 in week twelve of last year. The one before that was decided by 2.08.
  • Gosling has the best lineup efficiency in the league at 94.9% and the fewest points left on a bench, 15.00 across two weeks.
  • The board splits it 51-49 on a projected margin of 0.80 — and neither side has a full eleven named yet.
Zoz owns this fixture and nothing else

Dinsky meets the one team he cannot beat

Zoz leads this series 12-4 and has won the last three, the most recent of them 170.72 to 121.80 in week three of last season — the same week of the same fixture. Dinsky has beaten him four times in nine years.

It arrives with Zoz 0-2 and scoring 119.28 a week, third-worst in the league. He went 0-11 on the all-play last week, the only team to lose to everybody, and put up 100.56, the lowest figure of the round. Dak Prescott's 37.76 was more than half of it; the other ten starters managed 62.80.

Dinsky is 1-1 with 155.29 a week, second only to Orvieto, and the two halves of his fortnight could not look less alike: 189.36 in week one, the 49th-best score in league history, then 121.22 when Caleb Williams went from the highest-scoring player in the league to 6.72. Neither man has changed a starter.

Last time
5-12Dinsky in 17 meetings
2023 W1
99.6092.24
2023 W12
130.80141.06
2024 W1
125.42165.32
2024 W12
90.66146.38
2025 W3
121.80170.72
2025 W14
147.14154.96
2025 W16
95.40152.08
2026 W3
123.78120.04
Last 8 of 17 shown
  • 36.01 points a week separate these two, the widest gap on the board.
  • Puka Nacua returned 0.00 from a Zoz receiver slot last week and starts again.
  • Travis Kelce's 25.10 from Dinsky's flex was the best figure Dinsky started last week.
  • Zoz is favoured 59-41 at 0-2, against a 1-1 team scoring 36 points a week more than him. Dinsky's 121.87 is the smallest projection of the week.